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OTG POLL

What do you think of the Rangers season so far?

Quite surprised
Modestly surprised
As expected
Worse than expected
Terrible

Previous Polls
 INJURY REPORT
Vladislav Namestnikov 12/14
Expected to be in the line-up tonight
 
Fredrik Claesson 1/16
Will be out until February with a right shoulder injury
 
Neal Pionk 1/16
Will be out of the line-up until after the all-star break
 
Kevin Hayes 1/16
Could be back in the line-up as soon as Thursday
 
  MORE INJURY NEWS...
SEPTEMBER 24TH, 2014
CAPTION THIS
Read the submissions so far and see if you can come up with the best caption for today's photo

Best Of:
2014-15 ~ 2013-14
2012-13 ~ 2011-12
2010-11 ~ 2009-10

RUMOR MILL

Tuesday - October 25th

Either Josh Jooris (New York Daily News) or Dylan McIlrath are likely to find themselves on waivers when Pavel Buchnevich returns from back spasms.

The team is expected to cut the roster down to 22 players, and as such one of the two will need to be either moved or sent down.

  MORE RUMORS...

Question Of The Day

September 29th, 2017

How many rostered players were on the ice for opening night 2016-17

Answer...
  BIRTHDAYS

Ray Markham - 1958
Joel Bouchard - 1974
Cristoval Nieves - 1994

  SEARCH BIRTHDAYS
  RANDOM RANGER

PETER SMREK
(2000-2002)
  Born: Feb 16 - 1979  
  Pos: Defense  
  GP: 22  
  G: 0  
  A: 4  
  Pts: 4  
  PIMs: 16  
 
Dan Girardi and his former NYR teammates can still help their old team

Bolts For The Cup!
Posted by Toby Ivey ≡ 1:09:45 PM - February 28, 2018

So the Rangers now have three first round picks this year, and a possible first round pick.  As it stands right now, the best pick will be their own this year, projecting to be a top 10 pick.  As of February 27th, they have the 7th worst record in the league, though some of the teams they are "chasing" have played fewer than the 63 games already completed by New York.

The Coyotes and Sabres lead the race to the worst finish with 46 and 49 points with 62 and 63 games completed respectively.  The chances of the Rangers catching either team, while mathematically possible, is rather improbable.

At 52 points from 61 games, it's also unlikely that New York will finish worse than the Senators, so more likely they're focusing the Canadiens (56 from 62 games), Oilers (58 from 62) and tonight's opponents, Vancouver, who have 55 points from 63.

They also will have to keep an eye on Chicago (62 points in 63 games), Florida (62 points in 59 games) and Detroit (62 points in 62 games).  The Hurricanse (64 in 62) and Islanders (65 in 63) also are "within reach" to some extent.

So assuming the Rangers do finish around 7th, that gives the team a 6.7%, or 1 in 15 chance of closing stealing the 1st pick, a 7% chance of 2nd which extends to 7.2% for 3rd.  If they can get all the way to 4th, then those numbers raise to 9.5%/9.5%/9.6% respectively.  You can track the odds here.

While the Rangers "control" their own destiny to some extent, the other two picks from Boston and Tampa will rely on how the other teams finish.

Here's the Pick distribution for teams making the playoffs:

  • Teams that do not win their division and are knocked out in the first round or second rounds are awarded draft picks 16-23
  • Teams that won their division but do not play in the Conference Final get 24-27
  • The losing team in the Conference Final get picks 28-29
  • The Cup losing team gets 30
  • Cup Winning team gets 31

So, with Boston and Tampa almost both certainly making the playoffs, then the best the Rangers could hope for are picks 16 and 17.  This however is very unlickly to occur, as the teams currently sit 6th and 1st overall in the standings, and Boston has some games in hand.

Additionally complicating factors, is Tampa also currently leads the Atlantic Division, though they could still be caught by both the Bruins and Maple Leafs.

In the case where the Maple Leafs won the division, and the Lightning and Bruins both failed to qualify for the Conference Finals, then the Rangers would most likely be looking at picks 21 and 22 (perhaps a little higher if either team struggles in the remains of the regular season).

This scenario however would mean the best the Rangers could do would be 31st in 2019, as the Lightning would need to win the Cup next season in order for the conditional 2nd to be converted to a 1st.

So, realistically the Rangers are probably better off if the Lightning were to win this year, meaning winning the Cup, the Division and keeping the Bruins out of the Conference Finals would be their best path this year, and failing dramatically next year - though unlikely - would result in the best pick next year.

Now you know who to cheer for - if you didn't already.  Go Lightning for the Cup, and hope that Boston tails off for the remainder of this year.  Then hope for the Lightning to struggle next year, though they will largely have the same roster as the one that's been so successful this season.



Profile of the Author:
Has been an active follower of the New York Rangers since the 1996-97 season. Began OutsideTheGarden.com in 2001, and has continued to collect data and provide analysis on the team through to the current day.

 Additional stories from Toby Ivey:


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  NEXT GAMES
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Thursday Jan 31st
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Saturday Feb 2nd
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Monday Feb 4th
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Complete Schedule
  STANDINGS
  Team GP W L OT Pts  
  Lightning 49 37 10 2 76  
  Maple Leafs 47 29 16 2 60  
  Islanders 47 28 15 4 60  
  Blue Jackets 47 28 16 3 59  
  Bruins 49 27 17 5 59  
  Canadiens 50 27 18 5 59  
  Capitals 47 27 15 5 59  
  Penguins 47 26 15 6 58  
  Sabres 48 24 18 6 54  
  Hurricanes 47 22 20 5 49  
  Rangers 48 21 20 7 49  
  Panthers 46 18 20 8 44  
  Flyers 48 19 23 6 44  
  Devils 48 18 23 7 43  
  Senators 49 19 25 5 43  
  Red Wings 49 18 24 7 43  
FULL STANDINGS

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