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Best case scenario I see in the draft
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itsmcilrathtime
Posted 2018-04-08 8:34 AM (#702930)
Subject: Best case scenario I see in the draft


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I can't see them falling into the top 6. No luck with this organization. I hope Montreal is sitting there at 4. Maybe Rangers are 9th. Trade them the 9th, Day and Buchnevich for the 4th and hope Montreal is stupid enough to do it. Then take Tkachuk who will be a perfect player for this team for a decade.
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Mikey Red
Posted 2018-04-08 8:39 AM (#702933 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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I would love Tkachuk.....He is exactly what this team needs .....Big physical North South player
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robstones
Posted 2018-04-08 8:54 AM (#702938 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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You can only fall in to the top 3 via the lottery. After the top 3, they go by worst record first. So, if The Rangers don't get a lottery pick, they will pick no higher than 8th, no lower than 11th

The only way Montreal stays at 4th is if no one wins a lottery pick, and the top 3 stay as Sabers, Sens, Yotes.... if any other team wins a top 3 spot, Montreal is bumped higher


http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/mock_draft

If you haven't done the SIM lotto, Rangers get in to the top 3 every other try for me..... Montreal never stays at 4. They typically move back to 6th or even 7th

If you think Tkachuk is good, you'll love Svechnikov.

I envision NYR getting the 3rd pick, grabbing Zadina, then landing Chytil's other Czechmate Martin Kaut later

Edited by robstones 2018-04-08 8:55 AM
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Mikey Red
Posted 2018-04-08 9:02 AM (#702940 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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MSG needs to establish some broadcasting shows with the crew to talk about this stuff between now and the draft....and even into free agency
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Mikey Red
Posted 2018-04-08 9:03 AM (#702941 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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I did Tankathon one time...when Rob first gave the link....We ended it up with Rasmus....So I left it at that lol
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Mikey Red
Posted 2018-04-08 9:28 AM (#702944 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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20 more days til the Lotto
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Rranger
Posted 2018-04-08 10:46 PM (#702988 - in reply to #702933)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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Mikey Red - 2018-04-08 7:39 AM

I would love Tkachuk.....He is exactly what this team needs .....Big physical North South player





I’m big on Thachuk, but I doubt they will get him unless the Rangers have some draft lottery luck.. It’s tough to trade up into the top five, good G.M.’s understand the ramifications and job security of deviating from the safety of making the pick.
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concust
Posted 2018-04-09 7:49 AM (#703008 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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OK just so you guys know, I have to put this out there and hopefully it will sink in the next 20 days.

So be prepared...

The Rangers have a better chance of falling to 8 than they do of moving to the top 3.
The Rangers have a better chance of falling to 9, than they do of moving to the top 3.
The Rangers have a better chance of falling than they do of staying at 7.

That's just going by the odds, and odds are not a predictor, BUT everyone likes to talk about the possibility of moving up, but no one likes to face the possibilities of moving down.

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Mikey Red
Posted 2018-04-09 7:59 AM (#703009 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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Right....only way Rangers can move UP in the draft is to win one of the 3 lotto spots....They can drop lower than 8 if a team behind them wins a lotto spot....So they could actually drop to 11 in theory
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rjpny75
Posted 2018-04-09 8:00 AM (#703010 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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"Never tell me the odds"

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Mikey Red
Posted 2018-04-09 8:05 AM (#703011 - in reply to #703010)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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rjpny75 - 2018-04-09 10:00 AM

"Never tell me the odds"

--Han Solo

Lol What about Dark Helmet?
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robstones
Posted 2018-04-09 8:39 AM (#703015 - in reply to #703008)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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concust - 2018-04-09 9:49 AM


OK just so you guys know, I have to put this out there and hopefully it will sink in the next 20 days.

So be prepared...

The Rangers have a better chance of falling to 8 than they do of moving to the top 3.
The Rangers have a better chance of falling to 9, than they do of moving to the top 3.
The Rangers have a better chance of falling than they do of staying at 7.

That's just going by the odds, and odds are not a predictor, BUT everyone likes to talk about the possibility of moving up, but no one likes to face the possibilities of moving down.



Devils moved from 4th to 1st
Flyers moved from 12th to 2nd
Dallas moved from 7th to 3rd

We can absolutely move back a couple, but there's a real chance of winning a spot.... 20% chance, I think actually... I'd roll those dice
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itsmcilrathtime
Posted 2018-04-09 8:46 AM (#703017 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: RE: Best case scenario I see in the draft


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Every year the fans have a player that they make excuses for. This year it's Buchnevich. Don't like his game. Never have. I don't put this one on AV. Buchnevich to me is everything a good playoff player isn't. However, my guess is Gorton probably will try him one year with Kovalchuk. I wouldn't if I had a chance to get Tkachuk by using him in a deal.
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Mikey Red
Posted 2018-04-09 8:50 AM (#703018 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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Buch is a whole lotta hype so far
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concust
Posted 2018-04-09 9:02 AM (#703022 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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Sorry my numbers were off in my first post because I was looking at a table on my phone. But the idea is still the same. We have a better chance of moving back than we do of moving up.

19% chance of moving into top 3.
~37% chance of staying at pick 8.
~36% chance of moving back to pick 9.
~7.8% chance of moving back to pick 10.
~0.4% chance of moving back to pick 11.

Combined chance of moving up - 19%
Chance of staying at 8 - 37%
Chance of moving down - 44.2%

By all means hold on to the optimism and hope to move up, but understand there is a better chance of moving down.
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NYR # 1
Posted 2018-04-09 6:53 PM (#703120 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft


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I'll take those odds every day of the week. What I see is 73% chance we pick at 8 or 9 (which essentially is staying the same) and a 19% chance of moving into the top 3 (while we only have an 8.2% chance of really dropping back).

So to me this tells a great favorable story, while also saying most likely by the odds our pick will stay neutral at 8/9.

Yes please...




Edited by NYR # 1 2018-04-09 6:54 PM
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Rangerjunkie
Posted 2018-04-10 2:13 PM (#703138 - in reply to #702933)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft


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Mikey Red - 2018-04-08 8:39 AM

I would love Tkachuk.....He is exactly what this team needs .....Big physical North South player


C'Mon man, thats what we have in Kreider.

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Mikey Red
Posted 2018-04-10 2:14 PM (#703139 - in reply to #703138)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft



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Rangerjunkie - 2018-04-10 4:13 PM

Mikey Red - 2018-04-08 8:39 AM

I would love Tkachuk.....He is exactly what this team needs .....Big physical North South player


C'Mon man, thats what we have in Kreider.


hahaha...hopefully Tkachuk can shoot and miss the center mass of the goalies chest
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LeetchyMrRanger
Posted 2018-04-13 5:20 PM (#703241 - in reply to #702930)
Subject: Re: Best case scenario I see in the draft


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THN Top 100 Prospect has Lias & Filip #14 & #15 overall. Some one named Demko #43. Some one named Hajek #73.
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