Alexis Lafreniere will start camp on the right wing
Alexis Lafreniere will start camp on the right wing

Still Alive

With six games remaining, the Rangers remain four and five points respectively behind the Bruins and Islanders for the last playoff spot, and with two games against each of these teams remaining, it would seem the team still has a chance.

How good is that chance, well not great, but there are some ways it could happen.  We’ll take a look at what factors are in play here through the closing two weeks of the season.

As it stands right now the East Division standings are as follows:

1st Capitals 68 points – 7 games remaining
2nd Penguins 67 points – 6 games remaining
3rd Islanders 63 points – 7 games remaining
4th Bruins 62 points – 8 games remaining
5th Rangers 58 points – 6 games remaining

Right now, the Capitals just need three points (or equivalent points missed by the Rangers) for them to clinch a playoff spot.  For the Penguins it’s four points, eight for the Islanders and nine  for the Bruins.

That is because right now, the maximum number of points the Rangers can get is 70 points, with six wins in their six remaining games.

If those teams only get to 70 points, then they may or may not eliminate the Rangers.  The first tiebreaker is Regulation Wins, and in this category, the Rangers have done pretty well.  Only the Capitals (26) and Penguins (25) have more than the Rangers (23), while the Isles and Bruins both trail (21).  If teams are tied, then the team with the greater number of regulation wins goes through.

If however the Regulation Win total is also tied, then we add in OT wins, and the Isles (25) and Bruins (24) put us in an almost dead heat with the Rangers (25) in that regard, though they both have more games remaining.

After that it goes to Wins, and as it stands right now, the Rangers (26) trail the Isles (29) and Bruins (28), who’ve both been better in the shootout.

Now let’s put that to the side while we look at the possibility of the Rangers winning their final six games in regulation.  Factor in also the rescheduled game between the Islanders and Bruins, and the best scenario for each team would look something like this: 

3rd Bruins 74 points
4th Islanders 73 points
5th Rangers 70 points

Of coruse in that game between Boston and the Isles, there can be only one winner, so we should realistically remove one or two points from one of those teams.  In the best case the Bruins beat the Isles in regulation leaving us with the following:

3rd Bruins 74 points
4th Islanders 71 points
5th Rangers 70 points

or if the Isles beat the Bruins

3rd Islanders 73 points
4th Bruins 72 points
5th Rangers 70 points

Now the remaining schedule for the Bruins (aside from the Rangers games) includes two games at home against the Sabres, two in Newark against the Devils, the all important one against the Isles and their season finale in Washington against the Capitals.

Head to head, the Bruins have winning records against all their opponents, with the exception of the Devils, where they’re 2-3-1 with both wins coming in the shootout.  The Devils though have won just 3 of their last 19 games and despite getting some of their injured guys back recently, are still a longshot to beat the Bruins a further one or two times.  The Capitals by contrast have struggled, with the Bruins owning a 4-1-2 record this season against them.

The Sabres are almost a .500 team over their last 10 with a 4-5-1 record, including wins over the Caps, Pens, Bruins and Flyers in that stretch, so they can’t be written off, but with playoff spots on the line, it’s hard to see how the Bruins won’t make it.

As for the team out in Nassau, well their remaining seven games also include two matchups each against the Devils and Sabres, as well as this week’s home and home against the Rangers.  They close their season out against the Bruins, which may or may not be relevant by that point.

If the Rangers were somehow to sweep these next two games in regulation, then the math would come down to the Isles needing 8 points in their remaining 5 games to be certain of a playoff spot.  It’s also important to note that three of those remaining five games would be on the road, where the Isles have been an underwhelming 10-12-2.  If you figure they’re almost certain to get four from the two against the Devils, then they’d need the other four games from those three road games.

So then, are the Rangers going to make the playoffs, well almost certainly not.  It would require them to extend their current win streak to eight games, and along the way they’d have to beat the Isles, Bruins and Capitals, all teams above them.  They’d also likely to have to win in regulation AND then still have either Islanders or Bruins miss out on points in multiple games.

It’s an almost impossible scenario to imagine, and could come unraveled as early as tomorrow night, but while there’s still hope, there’s still some added interest to the games.

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