5 Games in and a lot of us might be asking...
Five games don't make a season.
But they can change expectations.
After dropping their opener 3-0 in Boston, the New York Rangers have won four straight, outscoring Tampa Bay, Detroit, Utah and the Islanders 16-5 along the way.
They're 4-1-0. They're younger. They're noticeably faster. They're more physical. They're getting contributions throughout the lineup. And they're playing a style that looks very different from the team that finished last season 34-39-9 and last in the Metropolitan Division.
Five games ago, we didn't really know what this team was.
Five games later?
A lot of Rangers fans might be asking:
Who are these guys?
BY THE NUMBERS
| Through 5 Games | Rangers |
|---|---|
| Record | 4-1-0 |
| Goals | 16 |
| Goals Against | 8 |
| Goal Differential | +8 |
| Goals/Game | 3.20 |
| Goals Against/Game | 1.60 |
| Power Play | 21.4% |
| Penalty Kill | 87.5% |
| 5v5 Expected Goals | 49.3% |
| 5v5 Corsi | 47.3% |
| 5v5 Scoring Chances | 45.4% |
| 5v5 High-Danger Chances | 42.5% |
| Goaltending GSAx | +5.6 |
There's a lot to like there.
There's also a warning.
We'll get to that.
YOUNGER, FASTER — AND IT SHOWS
The biggest difference doesn't require an analytics department to identify.
This team looks faster.
Not just foot speed. Team speed.
The Rangers are getting to loose pucks quicker, arriving sooner on the forecheck, closing gaps faster and moving the puck north rather than allowing possessions to die while everyone gets set.
The roster turnover matters.
Chris Drury didn't rebuild this team through one avenue. He used trades, free agency and the draft, and the result is one of the NHL's youngest rosters — an opening-night average age of approximately 26.6 years.
And the kids aren't decorative.
Eighteen-year-old defenseman Alberts Smits made the team directly out of camp and played nearly 17 minutes in his NHL debut. Gabe Perreault and Noah Laba are playing. Dylan Garand stepped into the second half of a back-to-back in Detroit and delivered a 22-save shutout. Cole Beaudoin has already made his NHL debut.
Add young established players such as Alexis Lafrenière and Will Cuylle, and this isn't simply a veteran team carrying a few prospects.
Youth has become part of the Rangers' identity.
And through five games, Mike Sullivan and his staff deserve some credit for getting a young, substantially reconstructed roster playing with structure this quickly.
DEFENSE: MORE THAN IGOR
New York has allowed only eight goals in five games — 1.60 per game.
They're surrendering fewer than 24 shots per game and haven't allowed a first-period goal all season.
In fact, the Rangers have led or been tied after 14 of their first 15 periods.
That tells us more than the 4-1 record alone.
They're not spending every night chasing games.
They're blocking shots, finishing checks, disrupting possession and doing a better job getting through the neutral zone and back into defensive position.
But let's not kid ourselves.
There's another enormous reason they've allowed eight goals.
His name is Igor Shesterkin.
GOALTENDING: ELITE
Rangers goaltending has produced approximately +5.6 Goals Saved Above Expected, currently among the very best marks in the NHL.
That's huge.
Shesterkin has been excellent, while Garand's shutout in Detroit gave New York exactly what it needed when Igor got a night off.
But there's an important difference between this start and stretches we've seen before.
The Rangers aren't routinely asking Shesterkin to face 35 or 40 shots and perform a nightly jailbreak.
They're limiting shot volume — and then putting an elite goaltender behind that defense.
That's a much better formula.
It's also where the advanced numbers give us our first reason for caution.
OFFENSE: MORE OPTIONS
Sixteen goals through five games works out to 3.20 per game.
More encouraging is that the offense hasn't depended upon one player or one line.
Newcomers have contributed. The kids have contributed. The established veterans have contributed.
Alexis Lafrenière's four-point, hat-trick performance against the Islanders was the biggest individual explosion so far, while Eeli Tolvanen, Pavel Dorofeyev and Oliver Bjorkstrand have all made early contributions.
Even Shesterkin has gotten into the act, becoming the first goaltender in Rangers history to score a goal.
The power play sits at 21.4% — respectable without being dominant.
The penalty kill has been considerably more impressive at 87.5%, including killing all seven Tampa Bay power plays.
With this team's increased speed, the PK may be one of the areas where the new roster construction pays the quickest dividends.
THE ADVANCED STATS: HERE'S THE CATCH
This is where the story gets interesting.
The standings say the Rangers are 4-1.
The eye test says they're faster and more difficult to play against.
But the underlying 5v5 numbers aren't ready to declare them an elite team.
New York has approximately 49.3% of expected goals at 5v5.
Its 47.3% Corsi share means opponents have generated more overall shot attempts.
The Rangers have generated approximately 45.4% of 5v5 scoring chances and only 42.5% of high-danger chances.
Those aren't elite numbers.
They're not even particularly good numbers.
So how are the Rangers 4-1?
Part of the answer is straightforward:
Elite goaltending.
The Rangers have allowed substantially fewer goals than expected, with roughly +5.6 GSAx through five games.
But here's an important distinction: they're not simply riding an unsustainably hot offense.
Their 5v5 expected offense has actually been slightly better than their actual goal production.
So the early formula looks something like this:
Approximately even expected-goal hockey + excellent special teams + elite goaltending = 4-1.
That's not a criticism.
It's a measurement of where this team stands today — and it gives us something meaningful to watch next.
Can the Rangers start controlling more of the 5v5 play?
Can that 49% expected-goal share become 51%, 52% or better?
Can the high-danger chance share climb substantially from 42.5%?
Because if those numbers improve while Shesterkin remains Shesterkin, things could get very interesting.
FROM PRESEASON AFTERTHOUGHT TO TOP FIVE
The change in expectations has been dramatic.
The Rangers didn't make NHL.com's final preseason Super 16.
They didn't even receive a vote in the “others receiving votes” category.
Bleacher Report ranked them No. 20 entering the season.
After five games?
No. 5.
That's a 15-position jump.
Nobody should confuse an October power ranking with a Stanley Cup projection.
But it's a pretty good indication of just how dramatically the Rangers have exceeded preseason expectations.
There's another interesting number: Hockey-Reference's early Simple Rating System has New York No. 1 in the NHL, while rating its schedule as the fifth-toughest so far.
Tiny sample?
Absolutely.
But they haven't built 4-1 entirely by beating up on the bottom of the league.
NOW COMES THE FUN — AND NERVOUS — PART
Nobody should be planning the parade.
It's five games.
The Rangers aren't going to play .800 hockey all season, Shesterkin isn't going to save five or six goals above expected every five games, and young players are going to have bad nights.
But Rangers fans have every reason to be encouraged.
This team is 4-1-0 with a +8 goal differential.
It has won four straight.
It's scoring 3.20 goals per game while allowing 1.60.
The PK is 87.5%.
The roster is younger.
The team looks faster.
The new players are contributing.
The kids are actually playing.
And the coaching staff appears to have gotten its message across remarkably quickly.
The advanced statistics provide exactly the dose of skepticism we should want: the Rangers aren't controlling enough of the 5v5 scoring and high-danger chances yet.
That's what makes the next five games so intriguing.
Washington should provide an immediate test. They're bigger, physical and have been a difficult matchup for the Rangers in recent years.
Then we'll have ten games instead of five.
Still a small sample.
But twice the evidence.
For now, expectations have already been exceeded.
And Rangers fans can look forward to Games 6 through 10 with a strange combination of excitement, curiosity and maybe just a little nervousness.
Because after watching the first five, we're still trying to answer the same question:
WHO ARE THESE GUYS?
If they need me to bleed, then I'll bleed for my team
The last 15-20 games of last season gave a window into what we are seeing so far this season.
1 Cup in 86 years
2048
Yup after the Panarin trade Laf and Kartye showed up as well as giving Perrault some top 6 minutes. It will be interesting to see if they can hang with the Caps...Another big team like the MammothPosted by: @x10003qThe last 15-20 games of last season gave a window into what we are seeing so far this season.
If they need me to bleed, then I'll bleed for my team
While I'm enjoying the wins, I think they've still got some of the same problems that they've had for as long as we can remember.
The offense is being padded by the empty net goals (they have 11 goals in 5 games), the second defensive pair is getting out-chanced quite dramatically (about 2-1 in High Danger chances), it's being covered up by goaltending. The top offensive guys are still yet to get going. Dorofeyev had a goal in Game 2, and hasn't really looked like scoring since. Lafreniere got his first goal, and like Tolvanen only has one of his three goals this year against an actual goalie.
Miller and Zibanejad only have one goal each, and Miller's went in off his skate.
It's early, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable if there was some improvement there. The one change I will note this year so far, the Rangers are winning close games. All but one of the games (the TBL one), they've won one-goal games (excluding empty netters), and even the Boston one they came close to getting a point....less than 4 minutes away. That's an improvement from last season.
And they have been keeping the puck out of the net in first periods and starting much better defensively, and the dreaded last minute of play hasn't been so dreaded.Posted by: @fishReportWhile I'm enjoying the wins, I think they've still got some of the same problems that they've had for as long as we can remember.
The offense is being padded by the empty net goals (they have 11 goals in 5 games), the second defensive pair is getting out-chanced quite dramatically (about 2-1 in High Danger chances), it's being covered up by goaltending. The top offensive guys are still yet to get going. Dorofeyev had a goal in Game 2, and hasn't really looked like scoring since. Lafreniere got his first goal, and like Tolvanen only has one of his three goals this year against an actual goalie.
Miller and Zibanejad only have one goal each, and Miller's went in off his skate.
It's early, but I'd feel a lot more comfortable if there was some improvement there. The one change I will note this year so far, the Rangers are winning close games. All but one of the games (the TBL one), they've won one-goal games (excluding empty netters), and even the Boston one they came close to getting a point....less than 4 minutes away. That's an improvement from last season.
If they need me to bleed, then I'll bleed for my team
- 8 Forums
- 787 Topics
- 25.2 K Posts
- 5 Online
- 49 Members
