It’s very early in the Rangers season and we’ve got some good vibes going after a 4-1-0 start. A 3-0 season opening loss to Boston has been followed up with four straight wins, including only the second franchise victory over the Utah Mammoth. It’s been a positive start to the year for a team that has plenty of questions around it.

Is this a precursor for things to come, or is this the same sort of mirage we saw in 2024-25 when the Rangers started 4-0-1 but then went on to collapse and miss the playoffs. We’ll take a look at what’s working, what’s maybe not, and what might be worrying going forward if it isn’t solved.

THE GOOD

Goaltending – Of course goaltending is a strength, Igor Shesterkin and Dylan Garand have combined for a 1.60 GAA over five games, which is second only to the Dallas Stars 1.50. They’re yet to allow more than two goals in a game past them, with only an empty net goal in the opening loss to Boston breaching that mark. Shesterkin is 10th in Sv% with a .926 rating, while Garand was perfect in his only outing to date.

Close Games – Last year the Rangers really struggled to find a way to get points in close games, but this year they’ve started well. Three of the four wins so far have come in one-goal games when you exclude empty net goals. They came within four minutes of getting an OT point in the opening night loss in Boston which was less positive, but overall it’s been a plus.

THE BAD

Offense – The Rangers have so far had 10 different goal scorers. 7 forwards, 2 defenseman and 1 goaltender. They’ve managed 18 goals across the five games for an average of 3.20 for the season. That ranks them a respectable, though not fantastic 13th overall in the league. A closer look though shows that the Rangers numbers are inflated. No fewer than 5 goals have been scored into an empty net, meaning the Rangers offense has scored just 11 goals against netminders this season. At 5v5, the number drops to just 8, or an average of 1.60 goals per game.

The trio of Mika Zibanejad, Pavel Dorofeyev and Mika Zibanejad all have just one goal through the first five games. Eeli Tolvanen and Alexis Lafreniere may lead the team in goals with 3 each but also have 2 empty net goals apiece. It’s an area that hasn’t hurt the Rangers yet, and there’s some solace that seven forwards have managed to score goals in the first five games, but it’s definitely an area of concern given the history of the team.

THE UGLY

Defense – Hang on a second you might say. I mean how can the Rangers defense be ugly when they’re ranked so highly? How is it possible that a team that has let in a total of 8 goals in 5 games – 1 of which was an empty net goal, be considered ugly. Well it comes down to what’s still happening on the second and third pairs.

Per NaturalStatTrick.com the pairings of Sean Durzi – Marcus Petterson and Braden Schneider – Alberts Smits have registered xGF% of 39.56 and 35.39 so far this season at 5v5. That means that the Rangers are getting out-chanced between 2.5-3 to 1 when these pairing are on the ice. Even the top pair of Adam Fox and Vladislav Gavrikov are sub-500 with a 47.69% mark.

The Schneider-Smits combo has been outshot 32-19 when on the ice, with Schneider improving to 10-8 with another partner and Smits clocking in with a 10-3 mark when away from his regular partner. Similarly, Petterson has done a little better when separated from Durzi 10-10 versus 20-26 and Durzi moderately better at 4-3. Gavrikov-Fox sit at 30-23 advantage in shots when on the ice together.

There is at least some solace in knowing that the third pair have been relatively solid when it comes to high danger chances, with a 14-13 advantage in that respect. More alarming is the 7-18 deficit that the second pair carries, accounting for the entirely of the misbalance in that area.

If Mike Sullivan can’t figure a way to get these two performing better, then it feels like it’ll be only a matter of time before the law of averages catches up with everyone.

CONCLUSION

This year’s start has many of the hallmarks of the team from the last several seasons. It’s relying on strong goaltending, has a weakened second defensive pair and has yet to establish itself at 5v5. The big positive change so far is that they’re winning close games, something that stands in contrast to the past two seasons. It’s how the team will likely need to play throughout the season in order to remain in the playoff picture, and perhaps that will give them enough time to pull things together.

A short camp and a bunch of new players are certainly contributing factors, but if players like Dorofeyev, Miller and Zibanejad don’t get going offensively then the team is going to remain stuck in the middle. Same could be said for the defense where the bottom two pairs, and particularly the second pair are not performing as well as the results suggest.